2021 CEREBRO NBA DRAFT GUIDE
A numbers-first look at every NBA Draft prospect
Welcome to the 2021 Cerebro NBA Draft Guide. Here, we will provide numbers-based player evaluations for 2021’s NBA Draft candidates. In doing so, we’ll use data from many events across players’ entire careers. At Cerebro, we allow you to start the player evaluation process with stats. Our metrics allow you to evaluate players in 60 seconds or less using seven simple box-score based metrics. We help users of all types – pros to fans – more easily understand which players are and are not on-court fits for teams.
Want full access? More on access to our full platform and datasets at the bottom of the page.
Click on a player name in the top 30 for a breakdown.
This draft guide starts with a big board collected and weighed from all around the draft industry: mainstream industry names & draft twitter darlings side by side with their big board philosophies. Here at Cerebro, rather than marking a splash by ordering the list ourselves, we wanted to offer the community’s ranking accompanied by our insights. We are a company that offers stats steeped in context, tailored to the eye test but scaled from the box score. We hope that our metrics and scouting are the jumping off point of larger conversation – rather than a be-all, end all for the debate around players.
*For all queries, we will be using player seasons in their 2020-2021 draft year, not prior years or a career look.*
All player evaluations feature both Cerebro’s metrics as well as traditional box score data.
First Step: Understanding Our Metrics - The Basics
RAM – Overall performance metric
RAM is an all-in-one box score evaluation metric scaled from 0 to 1000+ to represent the quality of a player’s performance within a competition.RAM is designed to translate fluently between levels and eras of basketball, needing only a box score to be run. This all in one metric uses a proprietary blend of boxscore, efficiency and volume stats to create a stable and easy to read basis for evaluation.
C-RAM – Comparison to an average player in the event, based on RAM.
C-RAM scores range from 0 to 10+ and are contextualized by the average RAM for that particular season and competition, allowing for amore nuanced understanding of the talent dynamics and relative skill level of a particular league, as well as it’s historical products. If a particular league has a specific playscale, trends or any archetype that generally succeeds most, C-RAM is built to offer that context for you, in a quick and easy to read format.
Visually we represent these C-RAM scores in 3 different medals:
- 10+ = GOLD Rating who is a very strong performer (representing roughly the top 2%)
- 8.5 – 10 = SILVER Rating (Top ~8%)
- 7 – 8.5 = BRONZE Rating (Top ~20%)
As C-RAM is an evaluation of a player’s quality, the5MS suite is an evaluation of where a player’s talents fall (are allocated). The structure of the 5MS suite is that each of the skill scores are graded on a 100 scale – where 60+is good, & 80+ is very good , and above 100 is elite. The 5MS are comprised of PSP (Player Scoring Prowess), 3PE (3Point Efficiency), FGS (Floor General Skills), BMS(Big Man Strengths), DSI (Defensive Statistical Impact) – each a particularly weighted box score indicator that is used to specify impact.
Since the 5MS suite is scaled harshly for the highest levels, the best player in a particular skill metric for an NBA or NCAA season may be 85, depending on the year. At those levels it requires both an absurd efficiency and matching volume to break 100 – like Steph’s unanimous MVP season in 2015-2016 where he shot 16 3s per 100 possessions at a 45.9% clip, elements that contributed to a mind boggling 107.3 3PE.
When aligning multiple thresholds of 5MS, archetypes begin to emerge – for example, 60+ 3PE and 80+ DSI would create an outline of 3&D players. The 5MS can be supplemented with more granularity with percentage stats like usage%, as some prospects are already playing a 3&D role in college while others will have their offensive burden lessened once they enter the pros.
PSP – Player Scoring Prowess (Scoring volume / Efficiency)
PSP is our scoring metric, it is an evaluation of a player’s ability to score volume while maintaining efficiency. Scoring has been a troublesome skill to meaningfully and properly weight, high volume scorers can get over-indexed based on their per game numbers & those numbers may not always be concordant with winning – on the other hand, low usage hyper-efficient players can be both underrated and over-projected depending on the metrics weight. PSP tries to solve these natural inconsistencies by scaling the creation burden and efficiency more harmonically, so that any player’s scoring ability can be better framed relative to the expectations of that scoring role. Put plainly, we believe that a 70th percentile high volume scorer & a 70th percentile low usage creator grade out more similarly than was previously possible with a comprehensive metric.
3PE – 3 Point Efficiency (3pt shooting volume / Percentage)
3PE is, as you may have guessed, our 3p shooting metric.3PE tries to solve some of the problems that arise when comparing levels of shooters.Even in this draft there are so many potential intersections of 3 point versatility,3-pt volume and 3 point percentage that talking to 5 reasonably informed analysts will offer 5 different orders for the question of who the best shooter is. 3PE isn’t designed to fully delineate the best shooter, but to give a better picture of shooting expectation. Similarly, on the flip side of developing shooters, 3PE offers an insight to high percentage low volume shooters as well as low percentage high volume shooters – and every different front office, scout and analyst will have another data point on how that general shooting point has presented in prospects and developed as pros.
FGS – Floor General Skills (Assists / Turnovers / Steals)
FGS is our passing metric, weighted by usage outcomes for a ball handler and seasoned with steals, as a proxy for athleticism and feel.Due to the weights of the formula, it is more likely for ball movers and other “good” decision making non-primaries to grade out in FGS than other traditional passing indicating metrics.By contrasting the efficiency of the distribution with the volume of positive passing outcomes we have a metric that can display playmakers who are comfortable in the decision making role. While it is not as intense due to fewer inputs, FGS can, similar to PSP, better frame both high and low usage creators.
BMS – Big Man Strengths (Rebounds / Blocks)
BMS is made up of the traditional indicators for good big man play – offensive and defensive rebounds, blocks, and 2 pt efficiency. Traditional back to the basket bigs who only these things tend to score the highest, but not universally so, this class has a listed 6’6 player in the top 5, and the top 20 ranges from6’5 to 7’1. BMS is not just an effective metric to judge bigs, smaller players with scores above 50 must meet a higher baseline of feel, finishing and defensive playmaking – information that can be valuable when hunting for role players and relative positional advantages.
DSI – Defensive Statistical Impact (Steals / Blocksagainst Personal Fouls)
DSI, the defensive metric will most likely be the most scandalous of the 5MS suite – box score defensive numbers cannot fully capture the entirety of defensive contribution on their own, however, when those numbers have been carefully weight and tested against team defensive metrics – a clearer picture of impact can emerge. Rather than a definitive best defender rank, DSI uses a proxy of the intersection of box score defensive numbers to demonstrate athleticism and feel, which can then be compared to other players within that role and within the specifics of expectations of that team’s defensive system to create a unique defensive insight.
2021 Draft Eligible Players:
Top 150 Ranked by Projected Consensus Pick (PCP)
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A numbers-first look at every NBA Draft prospect presented by Cerebro Sports. This unique guide provides in-depth analytics to compare and contrast all draft eligible players using the proprietary RAM and C-RAM system.
